Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
