Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
